AS the curtain comes down on 2024, what does 2025 hold for developing countries in a troubled world that is transitioning to a multipolar system?
This is not an easy question given that there are just too many moving political pieces, each having its influence on processes.
In last week’s instalment, I mentioned the shift towards or a rise in far-right politics in the Western world. This may appear to be a new development, but it started way back with its most practical manifestation in the United Kingdom when it officially withdrew from the European Union bloc on January 31 2020, commonly known as Brexit.
Donald John Trump who took over the United States Presidency between 2017 and 2021 had found the Brexit process underway after the UK referendum in 2016. He too pursued the same idea of protectionism largely by imposing high tariffs on major global economies which he viewed as competitors.
Even then the far-right voice had begun to gain momentum in Europe before it fully manifested in the past two years. Trump’s second coming into the US presidency will find favour in the rise in far-right politics in Europe. The question is who will benefit or suffer from these?
Trump returns to office for the second time next month at a time when a lot of geopolitical developments have occurred, raising the question of whether pursuing protectionism is still a viable approach in a world that has moved on and has been organising itself in response to Western policies.
For example, the Brics — an interest group that has grown into an intergovernmental organisation comprising nine countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates — has made major strides beyond the initial agenda of promoting emerging economies.
The Brics was originally established to promote trading among emerging economies. Today, the group has become a major geopolitical player with the agenda of addressing, if not, limiting the US and its Western allies’ influence on global trade and politics.
- 2025 and the geo-political optics
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With that as the Brics’s main agenda, it stands to be seen how far-right politics in the West and the co-operation among emerging economies will evolve and reconcile. The West remains arrogant that the world can and should not do without it — mainly the US dollar and their global transactional processes.
On the other hand, the Brics members are determined to find an immediate solution to de-link from the two and establish an alternative global trading system that is not controlled by the US and its allies.
In short, the US and its Western allies are eager to retain and maintain control of the global trading systems without having to implement political reforms, while the Brics wants a global trading system that is free from the US’s capricious political behaviour. The US political interests have historically interfered with global economic growth. Going into 2025, the world must prioritise economic growth at all levels and by all.
Already, Trump has shown his unwavering attitude on his agenda to dominate and disregard the frustrations driving the growth of the Brics and the rest of the world. He seems to be charging like an angry bull seeking to re-establish control over lost territory.
He has appointed a team of billionaires as he assembled an ultra-rich administration in US history worth US$474 billion. This might be an indication that top-notch capitalism and neoliberalism are on the way. Billionaires know nothing but making more money.
On the other hand, key members of the Brics, mainly Russia, China and India, have also shown signs of unwillingness to give in and give up. In addition, Russia, China, North Korea and Iran have deepened their relations over the past years. While they are pursuing different priorities, they are united by the fact that they face the same enemy.
Trade arrangements and partnerships forged via Brics or other arrangements outside the US trade system and its Western allies have proven to be easier, more profitable and to their benefit.
These countries are not willing to trade these gains for paying allegiance to the West. In any case, they are keen to see the growth of a multipolar system than revert to the unipolar system. They are keen to see economic growth that is not hindered by US and Western sanctions.
If these factors are anything to go by, there is a possibility of a new and escalated Cold War between the West and the East as they compete for political and economic dominance. Investment in military and cyber wars will likely escalate and the presence of Elon Musk in Trump’s administration is not to be underestimated. There is the energy equation where Chinese demand has spiked threatening European energy security in 2025.
Just like in any war situation, there are always opportunities for those not involved in the conflict from which to benefit. In this case, with a proper strategy, it may be time for African countries to take advantage of these geopolitical changes and reshape their global trading landscape. China, Russia and India and the entire Brics community have shown willingness to engage new partners and establish new trading arrangements.
