IT is safe to say the world is in turmoil. While the world is engulfed in flames, leadership appears unable to handle the consequences and is turning to temporary solutions. It is safe to say that we are leaving a burdened world for the next generation if we continue to address today’s problems in the same way.
Economic shocks are worsening poverty and triggering social ills as people resort to negative survival methods. Massive numbers of people are being forced from their homes by major wars and conflicts, which are also disrupting livelihoods and destroying vital services and infrastructure. Some regions of the world are becoming uninhabitable because of climate change. Wealthy nations are prioritising their domestic issues because of the global economic crisis, which is becoming too much for them to handle. The generosity of the world is being tested, if not overextended.
Latest projections show that by June 2024, more than 122 million people worldwide will be forcibly displaced due to persecution, conflict, violence, human rights violations or events seriously disturbing public order. Considering what is unfolding in the Middle East, this number has spiked in the last four months. Nonetheless, this represents an increase of 5% or 5,3 million people, compared to the end of 2023 and almost double compared to a decade ago.
Although numbers are excellent for listing things and making complicated issues easier to understand, they conceal the true effects of wars and conflicts on individuals and communities. They hide the human face, suffering, the voice, emotions, pain and real loss. Numbers are often used to determine the needs of displaced people, whether internally displaced or refugees and asylum seekers.
Just to put the situation into perspective. The more than 122 million people displaced worldwide today is equivalent to more than a third of the population in the southern Africa region. This means that roughly 15% of people on the planet have been displaced from their homes, places of employment and places of production.
According to recent research, families suffer significant economic damage as a result of displacement and even the threat of it. Among the biggest losses are that of the house and family separation, which is followed by a decrease in or complete loss of income following the displacement. Estimates of losses incurred are not as clear but range from a minimum of US$110 per person per year to US$1 000 per person. It does not include loss of income for those engaged in productive economic activities or employment.
In some contexts, it means resources that the affected families could have directed towards obtaining a higher standard of living, better employment and long-term investments have instead been spent on addressing the impact of the shocks causing the displacements. On many occasions, even the banking and finance systems are affected leading to loss of family savings.
The analysis neglects the fact that individuals, families and communities are part of, if not central, to the economic ecosystem of a society. And the disruption of this ecosystem results in economic collapse which affects the rest of society. Businesses lose customers, supplies and service providers thus rendering everyone — that is both those affected by the crisis and those unaffected. Intangible losses, such as the psychosocial impacts of displacement, are long-term yet difficult to fully estimate. Watching an entire life and livelihood go in a flash by one bomb leaves an indelible trauma that is hard to recover from.
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After the economic loss, then comes the cost of keeping the displaced people alive and hopeful whether they are internally or externally displaced. The average cost of providing each internally displaced person with support for housing, education, health and security, and their loss of income for one year of displacement was estimated at US$370 in 2020. This means that more than US$45 billion is required per year to sustain these services.
Governments too incur costs because of displacement mainly ensuring proper planning, clearing of gathering sites and the installation of facilities. The means that resources earmarked for national development will be repurposed to address the new needs. The same applies to countries that host refugees and asylum seekers. The national budget will need to be adjusted to cater for the influx of people from other countries.
The real solution to this lies in addressing conflicts and wars. While some leaders believe wars are necessary to address differences, the past decade has proven that wars are not an effective way of doing so. Whatever happens with the war the final solution comes from negotiations and talking matters in the boardroom.
Delaying peace talks, while prolonging wars, only serves to cause more damage to infrastructure, resulting in more deaths and injuries while reversing development gains. It takes one bullet in one second to destroy a hospital which takes more than two to three years to rebuild. That is how illogical wars are to the development cause.
- Tapiwa Gomo is a development consultant based in Pretoria, South Africa. He writes here in his personal capacity.
