THE incoming administration of Donald Trump in the United States (US) has ignited significant interest in Africa, with analysts speculating on how his presidency will impact the continent's security, trade, and aid landscape.
Trump, now serving his second term, is set to be inaugurated on January 20 after defeating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in a historic political comeback.
Known for his “America First” rhetoric, Trump has tailored his rhetoric around nationalism and isolationism, prioritising domestic interests over international alliances.
His return to the Oval Office has triggered global reactions, with African leaders, including Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa, extending congratulatory messages. Mnangagwa expressed readiness to engage with Trump to foster better relations, signalling an intent to address longstanding tensions stemming from US sanctions imposed on Zimbabwe over human rights concerns and property rights violations.
“Congratulations to President-elect Donald Trump on your election victory. The world needs more world leaders who speak for the people, Mnangagwa posted on his official Facebook page.
“Zimbabwe stands ready to work with you and the American people to build a better, more prosperous and more peaceful world.”
Other leaders on the continent who congratulated Trump include Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu, Abdel Fattah el- Sisi of Egypt and Ethiopia’s premier Ahmed Abiy.
For Africa, Trump's presidency raises critical questions about the future of US-Africa relations. The continent faces challenges ranging from attracting foreign investment to addressing security issues.
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While some analysts suggest that Trump's administration might prefer cooperation with "capable leaders", concerns persist that his economic protectionism could lead to reduced US engagement in Africa.
In an article titled “No basket cases” published by The Africa Report, Peter Pham, Trump’s former special envoy to the Great Lakes and Sahel, is quoted in an interview indicating that the US president’s incoming administration would seek to cooperate with “capable leaders” on the continent.
This includes the possibility of scaled-back investments, aid programmes, and trade agreements that have bolstered the continent in the past.
Trump, who has described some states in Africa with unprintable words, has indicated that the US under his leadership would be anchored in economic protectionism.
There are genuine fears too, as the BBC notes, that though US investment in Africa peaked to US$22 billion by 2023 under outgoing Joe Biden, Trump’s administration would cut back on spending.
“But there are concerns Trump might roll back on this investment and trade. The soon-to-be president has more of a protectionist, insular outlook than Biden — one of the slogans for his first term was America First,” the BBC writes in an article titled “What does Trump's win mean for Africa?”
Commenting on the implications of Trump’s foreign policy thrust on Africa and Zimbabwe, in particular, Tshwane University public affairs associate professor Ricky Mukonza observed that the US would prioritise its interests first, while aid meant for the continent might be trimmed.
“Trump's foreign policy position appears to be straightforward, America first. What this implies is that interests of other players, including Africa are secondary,” he said.
“I do not think we will see much of a difference in terms of approach in the second coming of Donald Trump. Zimbabwe will remain a peripheral issue and sanctions are likely to be retained.”
As Biden sees his last days at the White House, the US has rejoined the African Development Bank-led dialogue meant to craft solutions to help Zimbabwe extinguish its US$21 billion debt.
It remains unclrear whether Trump’s administration will maintain its seat on the dialogue platform.
Another political analyst Reuben Mbofana opined that considering that Trump is yet to be in Africa on an official visit, his government will not prioritise the continent, which may embolden authoritarian regimes to curtail civil liberties.
“We have already had a Trump administration before, and so we already know what to expect. Trump is an isolationist. He wants the US to revert to its pre-World War I ‘splendid isolation’ era, where America focused on its own development and greatness yet isolating itself from global issues,” he commented.
“That is why, under the first Trump administration, we saw the US withdrawing or scaling down from key institutions and agreements. When it came to Africa, Trump never had any time for us.
“He never even visited a single African state. As such, Africa can expect the same under Trump's second bite of the cherry. He will not care much about Africa.”
Mbofana also underscored that investment deals beneficial to the continent, including aid and trade, may be rolled back.
“The other disadvantage is that Trump will likely reduce funding towards such initiatives as HIV/Aids, etc. This may result in difficulties for those infected with HIV accessing vital medications,” he added.
The US, through the President's Emergency Plan for Aids Relief, has channelled billions of dollars towards capacitating developing countries to combat the deadly disease.
As part of the sweeping changes Trump has promised, he has also vowed to curb illegal immigration. Every year, thousands of Africans fleeing wars and poverty seek refuge in the US.
During his first spell at the helm, Trump had indicated that the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which was instituted in 2000 to help the continent’s countries to penetrate US markets, would not be renewed when it expires next year.
The legislation allowed African countries to export to the US duty-free.
Due to the growing influence of China in Africa, Trump introduced the Prosper Africa initiative in 2018, whose objective was to encourage US companies to invest in Africa.
