WHEN former Cabinet minister Savior Kasukuwere announced that he would be standing in the upcoming presidential elections on August 23, many people were left trying to figure out his motivation and possible chances to upset the status quo.
Kasukuwere was known for being a kingpin in the Zanu PF and former President Robert Mugabe’s political matrix but escaped the country during the November 2017 coup. President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s administration has laid allegations of corruption against him among other charges.
His recent announcement through proxies that he will contest for the country’s presidency has raised debate in Zimbabwe, with several people now looking at the possible effect of his candidature on Mnangagwa and his nemesis Nelson Chamisa of the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC).
Many political observers, however, said he had considerable hurdles to clear ahead of the elections. Kasukuwere holds a dark past and has an unpleasant reputation stemming from his time in Zanu PF. Speaking to the Independent this week, South Africa-based political and social commentator Ricky Mukonza said Kasukuwere's entry into the ring should be a cause for concern, particularly for Mnangagwa.
“Kasukuwere is likely to benefit from the Zanu PF constituency and remember he was one of the leading figures in the G40. What makes it even worrisome for Zanu PF leadership is that the government has not performed well since it got into power,” Mukonza said.
He however noted that Kasukuwere’s major challenge was that he no longer has any grip on state apparatus and will likely to face an unfair electoral field.
Another political analyst Effie Ncube said anything was possible in politics.
“In politics, you never say ‘never’. Nothing is certain and nothing can be ruled out. Out of 16 million Zimbabweans, some people can provide leadership and who can turn the election on its head.
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“Whether or not they will show up for the nomination court remains to be seen. That said, such a person will have to make a strong appeal to upset the status quo,” Ncube said.
He, however, said there would be fewer political parties contesting the polls after 23 candidates contested the presidential race in 2018.
“This time there will be fewer political parties and candidates. The prohibitive costs mean that there will be few parties to field candidates for all contested offices at the local and national levels,” he said.
“Not many will afford the money required for nomination. Many political parties will stay out completely or field candidates in a few constituencies.”
Ncube noted that Kasukuwere does not have popular appeal as some may want people to believe.
“At best I think he may prevent the emergence of a winner in the first round leading to a Presidential runoff. He has been off for a long time and it is not easy to penetrate certain areas, either, because they are decidedly pro-Zanu PF or anti-Zanu PF.
“Once he is in the fray he might realize that things are not as easy as he thought,” he said.
Ncube said the strong anti-Zanu PF sentiment had forced people to coalesce around whoever was most likely to bring change.
“This has resulted in a largely two-party system. The language being used by candidates and the level of tension has also grouped Zimbabweans into two opposing camps. This can change with the emergence of a strong candidate although I don't think Kasukuwere will be in a position to do so,” he said.
Researcher and legal practitioner Sharon Hofisi said Kasukuwere's entry into the presidential race could bring a different dimension to Zimbabwean politics. He, however, said this depended on whether he was being backed by the stockholders in Zimbabwean transitional politics.
“Given his history as a former ally of Robert Mugabe and a top Zanu PF official, he may have a different perspective and approach compared to other candidates.
“He is still labeled differently by those in Zanu PF with some calling him part of the cabal while others might call him a factional leader,” he said.
He said Kasukuwere would either be accepted in the political fray or will be barred totally for being a threat to Zanu PF.
“This could potentially attract support from individuals who feel disillusioned with the current political landscape and are looking for a change through individuals with a ‘revolutionary’ appeal such as Kasukuwere, even though Kasukuwere's revolutionary appeal came late under the so-called Third Chimurenga,” he said.
“It is difficult to predict with certainty whether Kasukuwere will be the next ‘spoiler’ candidate like Simba Makoni, Thokozani Khupe, or Joice Mujuru.
“Much will depend on the political dynamics, alliances formed, and the level of support Kasukuwere can garner. If there's a spoiler, it won't be Kasukuwere unless the spoiler alert message is institutionalized and institutionally manipulated by the electorate,” he said.
Hofisi also said the possibility of Kasukuwere joining the line of minor contenders in the forthcoming elections was high considering the current political landscape where the Political Actors Dialogue (Polad) gives Zanu PF some kind of legitimacy.
“It would be premature and unpolitical to definitively label Kasukuwere as a minor contender without considering the potential factors that could impact his campaign such as the waning influence of the incumbent, and the national appeal of opposition party leaders like Chamisa and third forces like Chapman,” he said.
Hofisi also argued that Kasukuwere’s national appeal depended on his ability to connect with voters across different regions, ethnicities, and demographics in Zimbabwe.
“This could be significantly limited since he's only appearing like a meteor albeit momentarily and in a seemingly hostile political environment. While there may be perceptions of his support being limited to a particular section of the population like Korekores, it is essential to consider that political support can shift and evolve based on various factors such as policies, messaging, and voter sentiment,” he said.
“He is largely going to be seen as a Zanu PF person based on his 'Tyson waBantu' label that appeared some time ago or the connection to some presidential aspirants like Walter Mzembi,” Hofisi added.
Kasukuwere and others trying to topple Zanu PF and Mnangagwa from power have to submit their nomination papers next week.
