ZIMBABWE will need strong disaster management to improve agricultural productivity in the face of El Nino weather phenomenon and impending global risks, the National Competitiveness Commission (NCC) has said.
The 2024 global risks’ indications are generally grim with a negative outlook for the world over the next two years with expectations of worsening over the next decade.
While several global experts project an elevated chance of global catastrophes in the next two years, the NCC said the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has exposed cracks in societies that are being further strained by episodic upheaval.
Zimbabwe, which already has a turbulent economy, is seen struggling in the aftermath of global shocks amid recommendations for solid plans to avert crisis.
“Strong disaster management will improve agricultural productivity thereby ensuring uninterrupted supply of raw materials from local sources for secondary production,” the report read in part.
“This builds up value chains and fosters national competitiveness. Furthermore, disaster management spurs investment in resilient infrastructure, innovation, risk mitigation and regulatory compliance, which are key competitiveness pillar.
“Current risk landscape in 2024 has extreme weather as number one risk. Zimbabwe is currently facing changing weather patterns with rainy season shifting from October to late December and this has affected the planting seasons with prolonged dry spells.
“Zimbabwe is an agro-based economy, so these extreme weather conditions have a negative impact to the economy, through fiscal pressures exerted by importations and ensuring food security for the vulnerable members of society, thereby crowding out investment, which is key for improved productivity and competitiveness.”
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The commission added that by effectively managing disasters, businesses can maintain stability, recover quickly from disruptions, and capitalise on opportunities, ultimately gaining a competitive advantage in the marketplace.
The government projected that annual inflation would end the year at slightly above 10%, owing to tight monetary and fiscal policies.
But the NCC said it was unlikely that the country will end the year 2024 on single digit inflation level unless drastic measures were undertaken to abate the deteriorating macroeconomic environment.
It noted that inflationary environment was one of the major downside risks to macroeconomic stability, which is a critical competitiveness pillar.
“With the rising of global prices for food, electricity and other basic necessities, Zimbabwe is unlikely to be spared, and these commodities are expected to be beyond the reach of many,” it said.
“These movements pose challenges for productivity and competitiveness by increasing operating costs for businesses, dampening consumer spending, contributing to inflationary pressures, exacerbating regional disparities, and influencing policy responses, which leads to business uncertainty, thereby negatively affecting competitiveness.”
Zimbabwe is facing challenges of high inflation and exchange rate volatility.
With the rising of global prices for food, electricity and other necessities, NCC said Zimbabwe was unlikely to be spared, and these commodities are expected to be beyond the reach of many.
According to the latest Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency report, the food poverty line went up 178,4% in February, to ZWL$432 454,90, as the effects of increasing prices continue to be felt.
The total consumption poverty line for one person also went up 177,8% to ZWL$552 745,80 in February 2024.
“Zimbabwe needs to increase funding for disaster management and also environmental awareness campaigns to mitigate effects of climate change so that the country avoids being food insecure and the economy will remain sustainable,” the report said.
