THE weather is changing. And so are human lives and their livelihoods.
Greenhouse gases began warming the world’s oceans in the early 1800s, decades earlier than previously thought. Centuries later in 1896, a Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius predicted that changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could substantially alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect. In 1938, Guy Callendar connected carbon dioxide increases in earth’s atmosphere to global warming. But humans were too busy amassing wealth and power.
It was only in 1992 that the world started taking climate change seriously when member States agreed on a global framework committing to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on December 11, 1997, extended the global framework, and entered into force on February 16, 2005. At the time, climate change was seen by other States as a political power game which is why some States withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol, while others did not commit to its principles.
The past three decades have shown the world that our earth is in a major crisis. Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Such shifts can be natural, due to changes in the sun’s activity or large volcanic eruptions. But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas. Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions that act like a blanket wrapped around the earth, trapping the sun’s heat and raising temperatures.
This is a fact not disputed by anyone, but also a fact that is in dispute in terms of the global way forward.
For much of our history, our ancestors relied on very basic forms of energy largely human muscle, animal muscle and the burning of biomass such as wood or crops. The discovery of fossil energy spawned the Industrial Revolution which shaped today’s economies and became a fundamental driver of technological, social, economic and development progress.
Letting go of fossil energy means letting go of global economic and political power even when there are growing and advanced opportunities for clean energy. There are some States whose hold on global influence is strongly linked to their control over the oil industry to the extent that if they let go, they may just wake up as an ordinary State with limited or no global influence. For this reason, mother earth continues to burn putting the lives of millions of people at risk of all sorts of dangers.
The word extreme has become a common prefix when describing weather conditions across the world. Just a week ago, the South African Weather Service warned that extreme cold, rain and snow are expected across the country. It warned that the extreme cold conditions could claim livestock in places over the western region of the Northern and Western Cape provinces. Flooding is expected to cause damage to property and infrastructure. Record-breaking extreme cold weather conditions have been reported in parts of Russia, China and Central Asia this year. Some areas in China reported minus 53 degrees — the lowest temperatures the country has ever recorded.
Heatwaves have also become a common phenomenon. In late June 2022, Japan saw its worst heatwave in 150 years and China also suffered several heatwaves in 2022. The 2022 European heatwaves affected much of western Europe and the United Kingdom. Temperatures in Spain reached 45,7°C. The highest temperature recorded was 47 degrees in Pinhão, Portugal on July 14. The United Kingdom saw the first red extreme heat warning to ever be issued in the country, causing it to be declared a national emergency on July 15, 2022. A report from the Met Office suggested that temperatures may have reached 40,3°C on July 19, which is the first time the United Kingdom has exceeded 40 °C.
In mid-April this year, heatwaves occurred in several countries in South Asia, Indochina and parts of China. In what has been described as the worst April heatwave in Asian history, several cities in the region reported record-high temperatures. In Luang Prabang, Laos, temperatures reached 42,7°C the highest in Laos’ recorded history, while neighbouring Thailand reached a record of 44,6°C. At least 13 people died in Maharashtra state, India, because of heatstroke. In May, Vietnam recorded its highest-ever temperature of 44,1°C. Starting in May 2023, a heatwave has affected the Pacific Northwest region of North America.
Other than heatwaves and harsh winters, there have also been extreme rains and flooding as well as extreme droughts that have left millions of people across the world in destitution. Even with all the data and evidence needed to convince human beings that the earth is burning, political arrogance endures. The approach to climate change has been to prevent, mitigate and address the impact.
What do these high-sounding terms mean for people in the village who are wondering why seasons are changing and why they can no longer count on the season for livelihoods? The more the world drags under the lure of making more money, the more humans will be squashed in those few remaining habitable places which may trigger conflict. Once the people are squashed and put under pressure, the law of the jungle will apply. The earlier humans take the right action, the safer the future.
Tapiwa Gomo is a development consultant based in Pretoria, South Africa.