Makomborero Muzenda EVERY 10 years since 1982, Zimbabwe holds a census. The purpose of a census — specifically a national population and housing census — is to collect national demographic data.
This data is necessary for several things: assessing the social and economic needs of a population, establishing the geographic distribution within a country’s borders and shaping government policy and population planning.
Zimbabwe has had five censuses since Independence in 1980. The country’s population has almost doubled in the space of four decades, from 7,9 million to 15,1 million.
The question of population has come to the fore globally, after all, what is a nation without its people? Demographic trends over the past five to 10 years paint a complex picture of population decline, stagnation and explosion across different regions and continents.
A few countries stand out as representing these extremes and government efforts to minimise their impacts. South Korea has one of the lowest birth rates in the world with an ageing population, causing the country’s population to shrink by 28 million by the end of this century.
Other countries such as Taiwan and Japan are facing similar population declines, with the latter having a dedicated Ministry of State for Youth Affairs and Measures for Declining Birthrate.
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Then there is China, whose One Child Policy is a famous example of extreme population control measures. Fears of overpopulation and its potential negative impacts on China’s economic growth, food security and standard of living influenced the decision to restrict families to having one child only – a policy that stood in place from 1980 until 2015.
The Chinese government relaxed the rule, allowing families to have two, then subsequently three children. But the effects of the One Child Policy are far-reaching: there are approximately 30 million more men than women in China, meaning that millions of Chinese men will likely never marry or have families.
Despite families being able to have more children, this has not translated into families (specifically women) choosing to have more than one child. If this trend continues, China’s billion-plus population will start to shrink as soon as 2023, according to the United Nations.
On the other side of the spectrum are countries, such as Niger, whose youth population has grown significantly over the past 20 years. A combination of high fertility rates, a falling maternal death and infant rate and slow but steady improvement in life expectancy has led to Niger’s population doubling between 2000 and 2020.
What is particularly interesting about this population growth is how young it is: with an average age of 15, Niger’s population is one of the youngest in the world. This youth bulge will have big implications for economic planning and social structures in the country.
Where does Zimbabwe fit into these demographic trends? The latest census shows some predictable and interesting data. Our population has grown by over two million people, with 16% of Zimbabweans residing in Harare.
The majority of Zimbabweans live in rural areas at 61,4% of the population, but urban areas have increased in size. Beyond the numbers and percentages, what picture do the census results paint of the past 10 years, and what glimpse of the future do they offer?
The gender ratio is widening
In 2012 there were 93 men for every 100 women. The latest census shows that number has dropped to 92 men for every 100 women. While that decrease is small in those numbers, it looks a bit different when we look at the figures.
The 2012’s census showed there were 503 946 more women than men. That figure today stands at 599 863. If this trend continues, there will be 200 000 more women by the 2032 census.
However, this increase is not reflected in political and economic institutions: although making up 52% of the population, women make up less than 50% of political representation.
Strides in financial inclusion have led to an increase in women accessing financial services, but they still make up less than 50% of people in microfinance.
Although the gender ratio is nowhere near as extreme as China, this question still remains: what happens when over 50% of our population is under-represented in political and economic activity?
Urban centres
Our urban centres are not growing equally. Sixteen per cent of Zimbabwe’s population lives in Harare. The province’s population has more than doubled since 1982 from 656 000 to over two million.
It is a different scenario for Zimbabwe’s other provinces: Matabeleland North, Matabeleland South and Bulawayo are still below one million inhabitants.
Although Harare and Bulawayo rank first and second respectively in urban populations, concerns about an overly-centralised Harare are hard to dismiss when the city’s population is equivalent to Mutare, Gweru, Bulawayo, Chitungwiza, Kwekwe, Kadoma and Chinhoyi combined.
Why is Harare province still so popular and populated? Resources may be the biggest draw: Harare is arguably the country’s financial hub.
A 2021 report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa shows that the city contributes one-third of Zimbabwe’s GDP. With increasing rates of unemployment and high cost of living, it is easy to see why moving to Harare may be the best solution for people who desperately need work.
However, this urban imbalance may create a cycle: the bigger Harare gets, the more resources it requires and, the more economic and political power is centralised, and the more the city will attract people.
It is not all terrible: Chitungwiza and Mutare have had a steady growth rate over the past 40 years. Who knows? By the time the next census comes in 2032, Chitungwiza may have grown into a fully-fledged city of its own.
Electricity
Less than half of the population is connected to the electricity grid. We have a tenuous relationship with electricity, a reality reflected in the latest data that shows only 33,7% of households are connected to the beleaguered electricity grid, with most of that 33,7% residing in urban areas.
Over 60% of households use firewood for cooking. It is a stark picture of just how bad the electricity crisis has become. One of Vision 2030’s targets is to increase the percentage of households connected to the grid to 72% by the end of this decade and to focus on the “attainment of optimal generation of power from both renewable and non-renewable sources”.
Eight years away from that deadline and not enough progress has been made on improving access to electricity and generating enough power for the country.
This has three consequences. The first is that it hampers our economic output, both in the formal and informal sectors. The second is that it fuels rates of deforestation.
The third is that the gulf between rural and urban areas will continue to widen. With Energy and Power Development minister Zhemu Soda stating that the country should expect rolling blackouts to continue beyond August, there seems to be no immediate relief to the energy crisis.
But what about the long-term? There are plans to build new power plants to supply the country’s grid and take pressure off Hwange and Kariba plants.
Construction of a hydropower plant at Mutirikwi Dam recently began, with expectations that the plant will be ready to start generating power from July 2023. Will this mean an increase in households connected to the grid over the next 10 years, and what will it mean for the cost of electricity itself?
As results from the census continue to come in, the data presents a clear look at how much Zimbabwe has and has not changed over the past 10 years.
Our population has grown. So have our cities and towns. But in many ways, we are still dealing with the same problems of 2012, in addition to some fresh challenges.
What is next? Well, that is for the government to decide. How they interpret this census data into policy will affect what the 2032 census has to show us.
- Muzenda is a writer and analyst. This weekly New Horizon column published in the Zimbabwe Independent is coordinated by Lovemore Kadenge, an independent consultant, past president of the Zimbabwe Economics Society (ZES) and past president of the Chartered Governance & Accountancy Institute in Zimbabwe (CGI Zim). — kadenge.zes@gmail.com and mobile no. +263 772 382 852