Making change our friend not an enemy

Quoting former United States president Bill Clinton in his 1993  Inaugural address as they referred to Zimbabwe’s ‘learning curve,’ Chido Makunike and Bornwell Chakaodza summed it well in an issue of the Financial Gazette ‘..the urgent question is whether you can make change our friend, and not our enemy’.

Change is not always supposed to be a fearsome prospect, or abhorrent, as it can bring with it valuable opportunities.

For a learning curve that is rich with historical experience, stretching back into centuries of slavery, and more recently, colonialism, Africa is perhaps better positioned compared with other regions, to appreciate the value of political liberation and leadership.

But the question that remains unanswered is why political independence in Africa should be synonymous with collapsing economies, insecure, paranoid states, violent crackdowns on dissent, and rampant corruption?

Why should the transition from colonialism to independent Africa always seem to mean chronic fuel, water, energy, industrial resource and food shortages, low capacity utilisation and productivity, rampant unemployment, skills shortages, hyperinflation, endemic poverty, and widespread corruption?

One syndrome that is difficult to explain on a continent that is the richest in terms of natural resources endowment: land, water, forestries, mineral wealth, as well as a stock of human skills/expertise.

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A historic reality that is an intriguing fact of life is that in 2024 two thirds of the one billion+ population in resource rich Africa lives on less than US$1 per day, the UN poverty benchmark. 

Following revelations of widespread corruption in Zimbabwe’s 2024 auditor general’s report can anyone say ‘change’ is our friend?

Every year, hundreds of mining conferences and workshops on Southern Africa hosted by the government, World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, African Union, Southern African Development Community, and civil society advance important legal, institutional, and policy recommendations.

 The African Mining Indaba, AMI in Cape Town, South Africa, May 2022, suggested more effective contributions of public agencies and mining houses towards education development, employment creation, poverty alleviation and sustainable development in Africa.

On the eve of the Zimbabwe Alternative Mining Indaba (ZAMI) in early October 2023, one WhatsApp discussion on the topic ‘Mining in Zimbabwe, blessing or curse?,’ culminated in a spirited contest between  ‘anti-imperialists’ (nationalists) and the ‘local African leadership failure’ protagonists.

The assertions of nationalists, with their roots in the anti-imperialism/dependency school theoretical constructs (ref Samir Amin, Andre Gunder Frank) of the 1960s are quite appealing; the main thread of their argument being that western imperial nations invaded Africa, using the political agency of colonising governments and the economic agency of multi-national corporations (mnc’s) to plunder the bowls of Africa of her treasured natural resources through unequal trade, transfer pricing, tax exemptions, or even direct pilferage, to the deprivation/detriment of Africans.

Former France president Jacque, Rene Chirac was closer home when he at one time submitted.. ‘We bled Africa for four and half centuries, we looted their raw materials, then we told lies that the Africans were good for nothing. In the name of religion, we destroyed their culture. And after being made rich at their expense, we now steal their brains through miseducation and propaganda’.

Explaining why wars of political liberation had to be fought to redeem the continent of colonialism, and create opportunities for locals to freely direct the African nation towards prosperity. 

Still nevertheless, as development experts ponder over the peculiarly African paradox, front pages of the UN WB, IMF, continue to depict pictures of sordid African environments. Millions unemployed, vulnerable, impoverished, because of the failure of transformation, or simply change, in that context of massive natural resource endowment. 

Why, for instance should it be a challenge for a country like Zimbabwe to transform, when the country’s agricultural sector has so many inbuilt advantages; abundant agricultural land, a rapidly growing population, the lower cost of capex for industrial plants, low labour costs?

Does this point to western hegemonic influences under global capitalism, bent on impoverishing Africans through unequal trade regimes and transfer pricing?

As noted in many publications, disparities between Africa’s contribution of raw materials to some of the world’s most lucrative industries, compared with the value chain benefit, highlight serious governance challenges.

West Africa (Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon Nigeria) produces 70%+ of the global output of cocoa. And yet 75% of the crop is re-exported as raw beans to Europe and Asia. What blocks further value addition from coffee in West Africa, beyond cocoa butter, powder and some chocolate?

Then there is the 70% of cotton (again a mainstay of West Africa’s agricultural sector) exported raw to Asia, where it is processed into yarn and fabric and re-exported back to Africa.

 The DRC supplies 70% of the world’s cobalt, which is used in electric vehicle manufacture, while capturing a meagre 3% of the battery and Electric Vehicle value chain.

Back in Zimbabwe is export of raw lithium, black granite, and many other minerals. The country’s vast lithium deposits mean that Zimbabwe could have had a head start in the manufacture of lithium batteries.

As noted in the 2021 African Mining Markets report Zimbabwe is the leading country producing lithium ore in Africa, and the 4th largest in the world. ‘Zimbabwe's Bikita Lithium mine has the world's largest-known deposit of the alkali metal, at around 11 million tonnes’ which ranks the country among the world’s 10 largest producers: Australia, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, China, Mexico and Argentina.  (https://www.african.mining.markets).

Zimbabwe reportedly has the potential to meet 20% of the world’s lithium demand. This is a valuable prospect, particularly with global shifts towards decarbonisation.

Zimbabwe can establish herself as a global (electrical vehicle) EV manufacturing powerhouse, with attendant employment and economic benefits (Local manufacturing: more local factories, more local jobs, more local incomes, more taxes to Government, expanded social and physical infrastructure, better education, and healthcare).  

 But the pervasive tendency is towards the unsettling picture of Africans importing expensive garments, car batteries, diamond wedding rings that are all manufactured from raw materials that the continent itself produces, before exporting these goods to other regions of the world at give-away prices.

This means Africa perpetually loses through net resource outflows, and also that Africa is literally subsiding labor costs in other continents. Giving credence to World Bank 1994 prediction that “..the number of people living in poverty in (mineral rich) sub Saharan Africa (will) “increase .. to .. 100 million by the end of the century”. (World Bank 1994; Rural Household Studies In Zimbabwe: A Review By B. H. Kinsey, Hilary Mcquier And Mandivamba Rukuni Working Paper AEE 2/95).

This being evidence of failure of development policy on the continent. Meaning, quite evidently, that change of governance systems and structures is an imperative on the continent, if the continent is to become a global economic powerhouse.

In early 2023, Uganda President Museveni may have been quite straight to the point when he castigated China for just extracting lithium from Africa, and failing to construct factories for value addition processes that create employment for locals.

But a follow up question could be whether Museveni was being realistic with this perspective as it fosters a worldview of Africa’s special needs being perpetually served as a case of charity by other countries.

Which brings us to other questions; Is Africa destined to be a beneficiary of aid and goodwill of other nations, instead of being a driver of her own investment and growth?   Are factories to be donated as a gesture of goodwill? how can Africa position herself in a rapidly globalising world where capital is a key catalysing influence over change, where policy and governance systems and mechanisms prioritise the continent from the scourge of imperialists and looters?

 Isn’t political leadership about sovereignty and power to change lives of others in directions of safety, sustainable growth and prosperity?

Must we not as Africans, shift towards leadership paradigms that secure, represent, advance and protect the best in terms of our own social and economic interests, where we can say change has become our best friend?

• *Masimba John Manyanya is an economist and policy analyst
• These weekly articles are coordinated by Lovemore Kadenge, an independent consultant, managing consultant of Zawale Consultants (Private) Limited, past president of the Zimbabwe Economics Society and past president of the Chartered Governance and Accountancy Institute in Zimbabwe. Email – kadenge.zes@gmail.com or Mobile +263 772 382 852