A UNITED States-based think tank has warned that the push by President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s loyalists to extend his term of office from 2028 to 2030 may plunge the country into civil unrest.
In a new report, the Robert Lansing Institute said the country also faced international isolation as Mnangagwa’s continued stay in power might mean Zimbabwe is heading towards a fully fledged dictatorship.
The 82 year-old ruler has repeatedly said he was not interested in extending his term of office beyond the constitutionally mandated two-terms having been first elected in 2018.
His Zanu PF party is, however, fraught with serious infighting with reports indicating that there is a push among grassroots structures to stop his loyalists from railroading the country into a referendum to support the 2030 agenda.
The Robert Lansing institute report titled: Securing a Third Term: Strategies, Risks, and Implications for Zimbabwe’s Democracy, predicted tough times for Zimbabwe over the 2030 agenda.
“Amending the constitution to allow a third term could face legal From Page 1
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challenges and would likely require a national referendum, posing significant hurdles,” the report reads in part.
“There is potential for public resistance, as citizens may view the move as undermining democratic principles, leading to civil unrest or increased support for opposition movements. “Pursuing a third term could attract criticism from the international community, potentially resulting in diplomatic isolation or economic sanctions, further impacting Zimbabwe’s economy.”
Robert Lansing, the man the institute is named afer, served as secretary of state from June 24, 1915, until February 13, 1920.
The Institute says his most important achievements included his oversight of US foreign policy during the First World War and his negotiation of a major agreement between the United States and Japan.
It said if Mnangagwa goes for a third term there would be long term consequences for the country.
“Pursuing a third term would likely accelerate the erosion of democratic principles in Zimbabwe, entrench authoritarian practices, and deepen public distrust in governance,” the report added.
“While it might solidify Mnangagwa’s control in the short term, it risks long-term instability, economic decline, and the further marginalisation of Zimbabwe on the global stage.”
The report, however, said countries like China and Russia may support Mnangagwa’s third term over geopolitical interests and the need for natural resources in the country.
“Mnangagwa’s continued leadership ensures policy continuity and a favorable environment for Chinese enterprises,” it added.
The report said the Southern African Development Community and the African Union may support Mnangagwa’s third term bid to ensure stability in southern Africa over erosion of democracy in Zimbabwe..
“As Zimbabwe’s neighbour and largest trading partner, South Africa has a vested interest in stability,” the report said.
“Mnangagwa’s leadership, while controversial, might be viewed as less destabilising compared to a potential leadership vacuum or a contested transition.”
The late president Robert Mugabe was forced out in a 2017 coup over his failure to manage Zanu PF succession politics.