PRESIDENT Emmerson Mnangagwa has said he has no intention to serve as President of the country beyond 2028 when his current term, which is his final, ends.
However, analysts and the public have questioned his sincerity, particularly because he and his party have a notorious history of doing anything to retain political power, including violating the Constitution.
During his tenure as President, Mnangagwa has been notorious for finding creative ways of extending the terms of office of various State officers, sometimes in violation of constitutional term limits for those officers.
Recently, he extended Zimbabwe Defence Forces Commander General Phillip Valerio Sibanda’s term for a year after he had reached the age of mandatory retirement.
Therefore, it appears unlikely that Mnangagwa will respect the constitutional term limit for his presidency when he has failed to honour the term limits for other officers of the State.
The second reason for questioning Mnangagwa’s sincerity in this regard is that he has allowed his close supporters, advisers and some of his Cabinet ministers to campaign for the extension of his term of office even when he says he is not interested in serving beyond 2028.
The third term campaign has not only created public anxiety, but also serious divisions in Zanu PF and government, with some analysts cautioning that this campaign could lead to political instability in the country.
Alas, the President has remained quiet and allowed the campaign to roll and this has created the suspicion that he is supportive of the agenda to secure a third term.
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Some analysts have argued that Mnangagwa is behind the campaign for a third term, even though he publicly says he will not serve beyond his current term.
In any case, it is President Mnangagwa himself, who earlier in 2019, while addressing a rally, declared that he will still be in power in 2030.
There is, therefore, enough justification to believe that Mnangagwa is contemplating staying in power beyond his current term.
How he may seek to achieve a third term is the question which we must grapple with.
Is a constitutional amendment the only way to secure a third term?
Current discussions on this subject seem to assume that a third term for Mnangagwa can only be achieved through an amendment of the constitutional term limit.
The pro-democracy movement in Zimbabwe is readying itself to mount a vigorous campaign against the agenda to extend Mnangagwa’s term to 2030.
In getting ready for this “fight”, the pro-democracy movement is focusing mainly on how it can resist manoeuvres to amend the Constitution to remove the term limit.
Brilliant analyses have been written on the procedures to be followed in order to amend the relevant provisions of the Constitution and how those procedures provide an opportunity for the pro-democracy movement to resist an attempt to amend the Constitution.
For instance (and correctly so), it has been pointed out that amending the presidential term limit to benefit Mnangagwa would require a referendum and this will give the pro-democracy movement an opportunity to campaign for Zimbabweans to vote against the proposal to amend the term limit.
There is no doubt that even within Zanu PF, there is a faction opposed to the idea of extending Mnangagwa’s term.
Therefore, there are prospects for a broad-based and cross-party campaign against a third term for Mnangagwa.
There is also little doubt that Mnangagwa is unpopular as a result of rising corruption and deteriorating economic conditions.
The possibility that Zimbabweans will reject the proposal to give him a third term is very high.
Perhaps, this is why some legal and political analysts argue that a third term for Mnangagwa is almost an impossible mission.
The opposite may be true. Let me take you back a bit.
At its annual conference in 2024, the ruling party adopted 162 resolutions.
Resolution No 1 states that Mnangagwa’s term of office be extended beyond 2028 to 2030.
The party called on its organs and the government “to set in motion the necessary amendments to the Constitution so as to give effect to this resolution”.
The purpose of this resolution is to set into motion a party-driven process for securing a third term for Mnangagwa.
However, this resolution is misleading in the way it was drafted and I believe that this was deliberately intended to mislead those who are opposed to the agenda of a third term for Mnangagwa.
Resolution No 1 creates the impression that the President’s term will be extended by way of amending the Constitution.
This may not necessarily be the case.
Considering the evident lack of public support for a third term for Mnangagwa, those pontificating for it will be naïve to pursue the constitutional amendment route that requires public support and could create an opportunity for Zimbabweans from across all political parties, including Zanu PF, to unite and oppose the President and even remove him.
The stakes are too high for a referendum.
It is my firm belief that those pushing for a third term are most likely going to opt for a party-driven succession process which utilises sections 91 and 101 of the Constitution.
Securing a third term through ‘temporary’ succession
The next presidential election is due in 2028, according to the Constitution of Zimbabwe.
In order to be eligible to contest in that election, a candidate must meet the requirements set out in section 91 of the Constitution, particularly sub-section 2 which states that: “(2) A person is disqualified for election as President or appointment as Vice-President if he or she has already held office as President under this Constitution for two terms, whether continuous or not, and for the purpose of this subsection three or more years’ service is deemed to be a full term.”
Mnangagwa may still be eligible to contest in the 2028 presidential election if he avoids serving his current term to the full.
What is a full presidential term?
In terms of section 91(2) of the Constitution cited above, a person is considered to have served a full term if he or she has served for three or more years as President.
Mnangagwa’s current term began on September 4, 2023 when he was sworn in by the Chief Justice in terms of section 95 of the Constitution.
Therefore, he will only be deemed to have served a full term if he remains in office beyond September 3, 2026.
If he resigns prior to September 4, 2026, Mnangagwa will not be deemed to have served a full term in terms of section 91(2) of the Constitution and, therefore, he will be eligible to contest in the 2028 presidential election.
What happens if Mnangagwa resigns from office before or close to September 4, 2026?
His resignation will trigger section 101 of the Constitution of Zimbabwe which states that: “a) the Vice-President or, where there are two Vice-Presidents, the Vice-President who was last nominated to act in terms of section 100, acts as President until a new President assumes office in terms of subsection (2); and (b) the vacancy in the office of President must be filled by a nominee of the political party which the President represented when he or she stood for election.”
Section 101 of the Constitution was amended in 2021, perhaps as part of laying the foundation for securing a third term for Mnangagwa.
The original provisions of section 101(1)(a) of the Constitution stipulated that in the event of the President’s resignation, the first Vice-President would assume office as President until the expiry of the former President’ term.
That would mean that, in the event of Mnangagwa’s resignation, the current first Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga would automatically assume the office of President until the next election in 2028.
This is no longer the case, as a result of the amendments to section 101 effected in 2021.
Under the current provisions of section 101(1) of the Constitution, in the event of Mnangagwa’s resignation, one of the two Vice-Presidents will step in and act as President until Zanu PF nominates a candidate who will be sworn in as President to serve until 2028.
Currently, Zimbabwe has two Vice-Presidents.
The first Vice-President is Chiwenga and the second is Kembo Mohadi.
Whether it is Chiwenga or Mohadi who will act after the President’s resignation is politically immaterial.
This is because Zanu PF is entitled under section 101(2) of the Constitution to nominate the President’s replacement within 90 days.
This does not mean that Zanu PF has to wait for 90 days to do that.
The nomination can be done on the same day that Mnangagwa would have resigned.
It appears to me that those campaigning for Mnangagwa’s third term have been meticulously preparing for this strategy when they introduced Resolution No 2, which was adopted at the Zanu PF annual conference in 2024.
It states that the “party and government should establish a comprehensive framework that ensures the operationalisation of the principle of party supremacy over government.”
In order to understand the significance of this resolution, it is critical to remember that even after resigning from being President of the Republic, Mnangagwa will remain the first secretary and therefore, the leader of Zanu PF.
He can use that position to influence the party’s decision on the nominee to serve as President until 2028.
That nominee will merely be Mnangagwa’s proxy.
Zanu PF Resolution No. 2 (cited above) paves way for the adoption of various regulations and policies by Zanu PF which will enable the first secretary of the party (Mnangagwa) to continue running the State through a proxy while waiting for the 2028 presidential election.
What should the pro-democracy movement do?
Implications for the pro-democracy movement in Zimbabwe
Yes, it is important for the pro-democracy movement to prepare for a referendum which may be introduced to change term limits in order to secure a third term for Mnangagwa or to extend his current term.
However, it is also critical to anticipate that those seeking a third term for Mnangagwa may opt to utilise other means including the succession provisions of the Constitution.
If they utilise the succession provisions of the Constitution as argued above, there will not be a referendum as the succession will be determined by Zanu PF members with Mnangagwa directing the process, in his capacity as first secretary of the party.
The security sector appears to have been primed for this through the recent changes in the command element and the curious decision of Mnangagwa to extend the term of office of the current Zimbabwe Defence Forces Commander until December 2026.
If those pushing for a third term for Mnangagwa opt for the temporary succession route as described above, the only way to stop a third term for Mnangagwa would be to start preparing for the 2028 presidential elections and hope to defeat him in that election.
In order to achieve this, there might be a need for a radically different approach to opposition politics in Zimbabwe.
It would be impossible to defeat Mnangagwa in 2028 if the opposition continues on its current trajectory of personality cult politics where everything is centered around one person.
- Justice Alfred Mavedzenge is a constitutional lawyer and adjunct senior lecturer of public law at the University of Cape Town.
