IN a recent announcement, the Meteorological Services Department released its much-anticipated 2024/25 seasonal forecast.
The report, released on September 4, 2024, painted a picture of a season characterised by challenges and potential opportunities, demanding careful planning and adaptive strategies from various stakeholders across the nation.
The forecast, which covers the period from October 2024 to March 2025, indicates a slow start to the rainy season, with the initial months expected to receive “normal to below normal rainfall”.
This projection for the October-November-December (OND) period suggests that farmers and other agricultural stakeholders may need to brace themselves for a potentially delayed onset of planting activities.
The report explicitly stated that “the normal to below normal rainfall for the first sub-season (OND) will likely result in a late start to the season in places”.
This early challenge underscores the importance of preparedness and flexibility in agricultural planning.
However, the outlook brightens considerably as the season progresses.
From November onwards, the forecast predicts a shift towards “normal to above normal rainfall” for the subsequent sub-seasons.
This improvement in rainfall performance offers a glimmer of hope for agricultural productivity and water resources management.
The report noted: “An improvement in the rainfall performance is expected for the sub-seasons: November-December-January (NDJ) 2024-25, December-January-February (DJF) 2024-25 and January-February-March (JFM) 2025 with normal to above normal rainfall anticipated across the country.”
This positive turn in the latter part of the season could potentially offset some of the challenges posed by the slow start, provided that appropriate measures are taken to capitalise on the improved conditions.
The implications of this forecast are far-reaching and multifaceted.
For government and the Environment, Climate and Wildlife ministry, the report serves as a crucial planning tool.
It calls for a proactive approach in implementing policies and programmes that can mitigate the potential negative impacts of the initial dry spell while preparing to maximise the benefits of the expected increased rainfall later in the season.
One key recommendation from the report is the implementation of a cloud seeding programme “to enable rainfall enhancement if required”.
This suggestion highlights the need for innovative approaches to weather modification and rainfall augmentation, which could prove vital in bridging the gap during drier periods.
For farmers, the forecast necessitates a careful recalibration of planting schedules and crop selection.
The report advises that “agricultural activities such as planting and fertiliser application should be guided by the 10-day weather forecasts”.
This recommendation emphasises the importance of staying informed and making decisions based on short-term weather predictions, allowing for more nimble and responsive farming practices.
Additionally, the forecast’s mention of “use of irrigation to maximise on the temperatures during the first half of the season (October to December) and during periods of prolonged dry spells during the season” underscores the critical role that water management will play in ensuring agricultural success.
The forecast also serves as a reminder of the increasing unpredictability of weather patterns, likely influenced by broader climate change trends.
The mention of a weak La Niña phase coinciding with the 2024/25 rainfall season adds another layer of complexity to the climatic conditions.
This variability calls for enhanced resilience and adaptability across all sectors of Zimbabwean society.
In terms of long-term planning, the forecast highlights the need for sustained investment in water harvesting and conservation infrastructure.
The report recommended that “water harvesting and conservation programmes be maintained given the intra-seasonal rainfall variability”.
This advice points to the importance of building resilience against both short-term weather fluctuations and longer-term climate trends.
Other stakeholders, including non-governmental organisations, international aid organisations and the private sector, have crucial roles to play in supporting Zimbabwe’s adaptation to these forecast conditions.
These entities can contribute by providing technical assistance, funding for irrigation projects and support for smallholder farmers in implementing climate-smart agricultural practices.
Furthermore, their involvement in early warning systems and disaster preparedness initiatives could prove invaluable, especially given the report’s call for “contingency plans for extreme events such as violent storms, prolonged dry spells, flash floods to be in place”.
As Zimbabwe looks ahead to the 2024/25 rainfall season, the lessons from past seasons of variable rainfall will be invaluable.
The ability to quickly adapt to changing conditions, the importance of diversified agricultural strategies and the critical nature of water management have all been underscored by previous experiences.
These lessons, combined with the insights provided by this latest forecast, offer a roadmap for navigating the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
While the 2024/25 rainfall forecast presents a mixed picture, it also provides a valuable opportunity for proactive planning and adaptive management.
Through heeding the recommendations laid out in the report and fostering collaboration among all stakeholders, Zimbabwe can work towards mitigating potential risks and maximising the benefits of the anticipated rainfall patterns.
As the nation moves forward, the ability to remain flexible, innovative and resilient in the face of climatic variability will be key to ensuring agricultural productivity, food security and economic stability in the coming season and beyond.
- Lawrence Makamanzi is a researcher and writes here in his personal capacity. He is reachable at his email address [email protected] or 0784318605.
