Re-reading the Sadc communiqué

THE Sadc extraordinary summit in Harare concluded on Wednesday by issuing a communiqué that largely centred on political unrest in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and little but significant censure of Mozambican post-election violence since the October polls.

Most Zimbabweans were anticipating a strong-worded communiqué on goings-on in Mozambique, a country that is an artery to Zimbabwe’s economy by virtue of the Beira corridor.

The Beira corridor — a network of road, railway and fuel pipeline — is the shortest link for Zimbabwe to the sea at the port of Beira.

Political instability in Mozambique threatens Zimbabwe’s economic survival, particularly now that the economy has been ailing for the past two decades.

Sadc started by saying: “The summit commended the Republics of Mozambique, Botswana and Mauritius for successfully holding peaceful elections and congratulated the newly-elected leaders, namely President Duma Gideon Boko, of the Republic of Botswana, and Honourable Dr Navin Ramgoolam, the Prime Minister of Mauritius.”

This, to many, sounded like an endorsement of the elections in Mozambique, but a closer look at the wording shows a lot.

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The summit did not congratulate the purported winner of the Mozambican presidential poll, Daniel Chapo of Frelimo.

It can be correctly inferred that Sadc, for the moment, does not recognise Chapo as a winner.

The sting in the communiqué are the words: “Summit commended the Republics of Botswana and Mauritius for the orderly and peaceful transfer of power following the elections held on October 30, 2024 and November 10, 2024 respectively.”

What was left unsaid speaks a lot.

Sadc did not recognise an “orderly and peaceful transfer of power” in Mozambique.

In other words, this still has to happen despite the fact that Mozambique held its elections nearly a month before those of Botswana and Mauritius.

Sadc then diplomatically said: “Summit received an update from His Excellency Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, President of the Republic of Mozambique on the post-election political and security situation in the country and reaffirmed its unwavering commitment to work with the Republic of Mozambique in ensuring peace, security and stability through the relevant structures of the Sadc Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Co-operation.”

Two important points are contained in the aforementioned paragraph.

First, Sadc is ready to work with Mozambique to ensure peace, security and stability.

Secondly, this intervention will be done through the bloc’s Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Co-operation.

The organ, Troika, is the one that has powers to recommend and oversee the deployment of any military force in a member State.

This is significant because Sadc sees the developing situation as deserving the attention of the Troika.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa or Zimbabwe, so to speak, did not shout itself hoarse, but very likely whispered into the ears of Sadc that any further escalation in Mozambique’s civil unrest portends chaos to Zimbabwe if the economy contracts any further than it is at the moment.

This can be said with the benefit of hindsight. Zimbabwe once in the past bore the brunt of Mozambique’s civil unrest in the 1980s.

Zimbabwe had to deploy its military to protect the Beira Corridor — the economic artery to a landlocked country.

Deploying military force in Mozambique for years was a huge drain on its fiscus, a drain Zimbabwe can ill-afford at the moment with its economy in comatose and a restless population.

For starters, Zimbabwe needs to take delivery of summer cropping fertilisers through Beira and so it needs to have its fuel.

Any disturbances to the supply chain have severe ramifications to the ailing economy, whose population cannot afford any price increases to those essential commodities.

Secondly, the Beira Corridor is the primary outlet of Zimbabwe’s mineral exports to China.

Zimbabwe is exporting huge quantities of chrome, lithium and other baulk ores to China through that route.

Exporting them through South Africa or Tanzania or Namibia will make the exports more expensive and ultimately uncompetitive.

Then, what could the Sadc communiqué mean when it “reaffirmed its unwavering commitment to work with the Republic of Mozambique in ensuring peace, security and stability through the relevant structures?”

This is in many ways pointed to its tried and tested means of pacifying political players in a troubled State by proffering assistance to form a government of national unity — the surest way to find temporary stability as a durable solution is being worked out.

This was the same strategy that was pursued in Zimbabwe post the 2008 presidential election dispute that was degenerating into a civil conflict.

It brought stability to Zimbabwe, but more importantly to South Africa and Botswana, which were carrying a disproportionate burden of sheltering economic and political refugees from their neighbour.

In Mozambique’s case, it is not far-fetched to say Zimbabwe and South Africa will bear the brunt of any further escalation of civil unrest in the former Portuguese colony.

One more thing, this week was also a momentous occasion for Zimbabwe.

It marked the seventh anniversary of the late former President Robert Mugabe’s resignation under the barrel of a gun.

Mugabe reluctantly tendered his resignation on November 21, 2017 to set in motion the assumption of the so-called second republic.

The mainstream media, both public and private, let the day pass without being commemorated.

It was a great dereliction of duty by the media to miss that opportunity to say something about democracy and constitutionalism.

It is worrying that such a day would pass as if nothing historic — both in a positive or negative sense — happened.

The media could do better.

The Sadc extraordinary summit reminds us that the region is in danger of civil wars if nothing is done to improve the democracy in the bloc.

It should be further pointed out that the regional body remains reactive to events rather than proactive and decisive.

Events in DRC and Mozambique are stark reminders of the region’s political fragility and the need for unambiguous communiques in condemning or censuring rogue member states.

The time to take a tough stance is now.

• Paidamoyo Muzulu is a journalist based in Harare. He writes here in his personal capacity.