ELECTIONS held in southern Africa in recent years have exposed a deepening threat to ruling parties, especially those that evolved from former liberation movements, NewsDay can report.
Opposition parties have swept to power in Zambia, Malawi, Botswana and Mauritius while the former liberation movement in South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC), was forced into a power-sharing deal after losing parliamentary majority it had enjoyed since 1994.
In Mozambique, the ruling Frelimo is battling to convince the electorate that it still has the people’s confidence after the general elections results sparked deadly demonstrations across the country.
Observers told NewsDay this week that the trend was an indication that the world, dominated by a restive youth, has become impatient with incompetent regimes failing to deliver on their promises.
“Look at the performance of the ruling parties in the last three elections; all have been losing ground in terms of the popular vote.
“On the basis of this trend, you can anticipate what the future holds for non-performing parties in power. Let’s see what happens in Namibia this November,” they said.
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“What could be the explanation? Multiple reasons, but this is an open-ended question that requires a scientific inquiry predicated on sound quantitative and qualitative methods to collect reliable data.”
But political analysts said a wind of change was blowing across southern Africa as political parties birthed by former liberation movements were losing influence and facing stiff challenges from emerging opposition groups.
Political analyst Vivid Gwede said opposition parties won or gained support in recent elections in a few southern Africa countries due to liberation movements in the region losing popularity.
“Some have been in power for too long and others have not been performing well in government. Those that have not lost elections have lost two-thirds majorities in their previous elections, including in South Africa, Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe. Commendably, some have been able to hold democratic elections and transfer power,” he said.
“Unfortunately, electoral disputes and political violence have arisen in other countries as ruling parties try to hold on to power at all cost. Zimbabwe and Mozambique fall in the latter group.”
Maxwell Saungweme, a renowned political analyst, said the current shift in African politics could best be understood through the lens of political science theories on regime change and democratic consolidation.
“As institutional trust erodes — a phenomenon often tied to prolonged single-party dominance — new spaces are created for alternative political actors.
“Additionally, with a rapidly growing, politically engaged youth population, the ‘demographic dividend’ is becoming a driver of change, as younger generations demand a seat at the decision-making table and push for accountable, responsive leadership.
“This wave of political transition mirrors Huntington’s ‘third wave’ of democratisation, where shifts in popular expectations and demands for governance reform challenge entrenched regimes, potentially leading to greater democratic pluralism across the continent.”
However, professor of world politics at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, Stephen Chan said while the trend against liberation parties was very apparent, each country was very different.
“The former government in Botswana was never run by a liberation party. There was no struggle for liberation there. The liberation party is extremely strong, even if highly corrupt, in Angola. Mozambique’s liberation party has resorted to fraud and violence to remain in power,” he said.
“But a key test of whether the trend is real or not will be the forthcoming elections in Namibia — a huge sparsely populated country, geographically not dissimilar to Botswana, but which did win independence under a liberation party.”
Southern Africa programme head for the Institute for Security Studies think-tank, Piers Pigou, said the declining popularity in liberation movements rooted political parties was their persistent failure to deliver broad-based wealth creation and inclusive economic growth.
“Declining levels of support are evident in most instances, although responses to these challenges vary, reflecting respective commitments (or a lack thereof) to building a pluralist political culture, dedicated to deepening democracy in the Sadc region,” he said.
“Power retention strategies employed by some ruling parties vary with different degrees of legitimacy. In the last few months, some such as the ANC in South Africa and BDP [Botswana Democratic Party] in Botswana, have accepted without question their election losses. Others have leveraged on their long-term incumbency, effectively unfairly manipulating the political playing field in their favour.”
Pigou said this had led to allegations of undue influence, rigging and corrupt electoral practices in some dispensations, such as Angola, Zimbabwe and most recently in Mozambique.
“Consequently, cogent questions and criticisms are raised (but largely unresolved) regarding election processes and results management that are counterintuitive to the realities on the ground.
“This will be a site of significant political contestation for the foreseeable future, as Sadc avoids a candid reflection on these political realities and member States insulate themselves under a convenient sovereignty comfort blanket,” he said.